Economic Index

Economic Index

by David Walle

June 27,2008

Housing market downturn continues, commercial building up

The down arrows continue to dominate the economic indicators in key categories – sales tax receipts and home building, sales and values – while there are up arrows where they're unwanted – local and state unemployment.

One bright spot is commercial building. The number of permits issued, and the value of the construction, rose in May, compared with the same month last year. The number and value of permits for alterations and additions also increased.
Sales tax receipts are a good indicator of activity in the local economy. City Finance Director Lori Fleming's office did a breakdown of the receipts by category, and the results show some negative trends.
For the first six months of the current fiscal year, collections of the 1 percent sales tax in the construction and home improvement category are down 10 percent compared with the previous year.

Paula Carter of Horizon Research Services took Fleming's raw numbers and developed a series of charts (above, adjacent page).

While there have been some high-profile restaurant closings this past winter and spring, the sales tax receipts from restaurants and bars were up significantly in the first six months of the current fiscal year compared with the two previous years. Receipts through March, the latest month with complete figures, were up 10.5 percent compared with the same period in the previous fiscal year.

Sales tax reports from department, retail and grocery stores seem to be showing evidence of curbed spending among consumers.

Local tax revenue from those stores is flat, with a 1.25 percent increase from October through March. When factoring in the increase in population, the data indicates a decline in per capita spending, although many people come from outside the city to shop.

If Columbia follows national trends, the reduced spending likely will continue. More than half of consumers polled in April planned to reduce spending on home goods, according to a report from Packaged Facts drawn from Simmons Market Research Bureau survey data.

One category that raises questions about driving patterns is the sales tax receipts from petroleum products, primarily gasoline, in Columbia. The receipts were up 3.7 percent through March, compared with the previous year.
However, the average retail gas price in Missouri, which is usually within a few cents of Columbia price, was about $2.50 a gallon at the end of March 2007 and the price broke above $3.00 a gallon in March 2008. That’s a 50-cent increase, or 20 percent.

Since the sales tax revenue hasn't increased as much, it may mean that people were already driving less this past winter and spring.

Columbia's Economic Indicators
receipts
1% Sales Tax Receipts
March 2008: $1,658,767
March 2007: $1,778,614
Change (#): -$119,847
Change (%): -6.7%

1% Sales Tax Receipts
Fiscal Year-to-Date 2008: $9,894,217
Fiscal Year-to-Date 2007: $9,858,405
Change (#): $35,812
Change (%): 0.4%

labor
Columbia Labor Force
April 2008: 92,902
April 2007: 92,862
Change (#): 40
Change (%): 0.0%

Missouri Labor Force
April 2008: 3,006,492
April 2007: 3,020,721
Change (#):-14,229
Change (%):-0.5%

Columbia Unemployment
April 2008: 3,050
April 2007: 2,738
Change (#): 312
Change (%): 11.4%

Missouri Unemployment
April 2008: 147,764
April 2007: 132,078
Change (#): 15,686
Change (%): 11.9%

Columbia
Unemployment Rate
April 2008: 3.3%
April 2007: 2.9%
Change (%): 0.4%

Missouri Unemployment Rate
April 2008: 4.9%
April 2007: 4.4%
Change (%): 0.5%

construction & housing sales
Building Permits – Residential
May 2008: 147
May 2007: 139
Change (#): 12
Change (%): 8.6%

Value of Building Permits – Residential
May 2008: $7,138,474
May 2007: $8,673,521
Change (#): -$1,535,047
Change (%): -17.7%

Building Permits – Detached Single Family Homes
May 2008: 23
May 2007: 41
Change (#): -18
Change (%): -43.9%

Value of Building Permits – Detached Single Family Homes
May 2008: $3,790,165
May 2007: $7,367,520
Change (#): -$3,577,355
Change (%): -48.6%

Building Permits – Residential Additions/Alterations
May 2008: 93
May 2007: 96
Change (#): -3
Change (%): -3.1%

Value of Building Permits – Residential Additions/Alterations
May 2008: $858,309
May 2007: $826,001
Change (#): $32,308
Change (%): 3.9%

Building Permits – Commercial
May 2008: 30
May 2007: 25
Change (#): 5
Change (%): 20.0%

Value of Building Permits – Commercial
May 2008: $12,447,815
May 2007: $3,346,050
Change (#): $9,101,765
Change (%): 272.0%

Building Permits – Commercial Additions/Alterations
May 2008: 21
May 2007: 20
Change (#): 1
Change (%): 5.0%

Value of Building Permits – Commercial Additions/Alterations
May 2008: $4,475,815
May 2007: $1,801,050
Change (#): $2,674,765
Change (%): 148.5%

Units Sold in Boone County – Detached Single-Family Homes
May 2008: 247
May 2007: 273
Change (#): -26
Change (%): -9.5%

Volume of Sales in Boone County – Detached Single-Family Homes
May 2008: $42,813,663
May 2007: $47,325,701
Change (#): -$4,512,038
Change (%): -9.5%

Median Price of Home Sales in Boone County
May 2008: $150,000
May 2007: $155,000
Change (#): -$5,000
Change (%): -3.2%

utilities
Water Customers
May 2008: 43,907
May 2007: 42,740
Change (#): 1,167
Change (%): 2.7%

Electric Customers
May 2008: 44,575
May 2007: 43,179
Change (#): 1,396
Change (%): 3.2%

Sewer Customers – Residential
May 2008: 39,496
May 2007: 37,973
Change (#): 1,523
Change (%): 4%

Sewer Customers – Commercial
May 2008: 3,513
May 2007: 3,414
Change (#): 99
Change (%): 2.9%
Contributors include: Lori Fleming, Linda Rootes, Sarah Talbert and Carol Van Gorp